Sunday, 19 August 2007

If you want to know how to buy stock - I have a warning and an opportunity

The first thing to consider about how to buy stock, is what constitutes success.

Did you know that MOST managed equity funds run by professional managers underperform the stock index. And by most that means well over 90%- so the question you have to ask - is do the professionals know how to buy stock?

The benchmark of how to buy stock - can you beat the index?

And it also begs another question. If you cannot do consistently better than the index, then should you buy stock at all, or buy an index linked fund?

Well there is news both good and bad.

The bad news is that most of what is written on stock trading systems does not work
I will repeat that it is important - MOST of what you read in books does NOT WORK - later on I will illustrate this with concrete examples. I will show you on a verified spreadsheet that you know all of that stuff about crossing averages and moving average indicators. FORGET IT
SImple backtesting proves that it is an assumption repeated so often it has gained the status of fact.

The good news

The good news is there are methods and systems which do work! And in later posts I will show you a concrete example, to prove that you can beat the index - and do it consistently. And that will springboard a set of ideas which have been shown to work well.

The key to all of this , is when you have found a method that you think will work.
Before you buy stock, DONT. Test the system, back test over long periods. Make sure that it works. Then paper trade. And only when you are sure, back your method with money.

Warren Buffet is probably the most consistent investor of all time.

Do you know his first rule of investing? NEVER LOSE MONEY!

So in the next post I will show a system which has consistently beaten the index

How to buy stock rule 1? - Test. test and test again before you ever back ideas with money

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